As of the moment I am writing this, Alexander Romanov has played in 133 NHL regular season games. He’s been to the Stanley Cup Finals. By some definitions, Romanov is a veteran. He has accrued two seasons in the NHL according to the collective bargaining agreement, and is soon to start his second NHL contract and third professional contract. Throughout that time, Romanov has been one of the youngest and most exciting, frustrating, and polarizing hockey players in the Montreal Canadiens’ organization. He’s had high highs, but more frequently experienced some incredibly low lows. At this point, it feels as though many members of the fanbase have written off Romanov’s potential to be impactful down the line, and that’s an unfortunate, but not an unreasonable take. However, I’m not convinced it’s an accurate take either.
In whatever we evaluate, it’s important we keep perspective. Despite his youth, we are very familiar with Alexander Romanov. We know all of his flaws, all of his strengths, his tendencies, etc. - we know much less of Kaiden Guhle, Jordan Harris, Mattias Norlinder, etc. and those who are aware of the underlying details of these players’ games will naturally have their analysis skewed by the differences in playstyle and weaker competitiveness of these players’ respective leagues. And though Romanov is the oldest of this group, he shares a birth year with Norlinder and Harris, and was playing in the NHL at a younger age than any of these players will. Unlike those guys, Romanov has never been given the opportunity to dominate a league, or lead a team’s defense. Most defensemen of Romanov’s current age who become offensive creators in the NHL have shown elite offense at some level by this point – Romanov hasn’t, and likewise I do not expect him to become a high-end offensive creator. His only junior league play came in the MHL, but he was done with that league after his draft year, leaving him to battle tooth and nail for depth minutes in the KHL. After two years of one historic pro team hampering his development, Romanov moved to another historic pro team, this time across the pond in North America, who promptly also did whatever possible to ruin his development: time spent in the press box during his rookie year, bottom pairing minutes that weren’t conducive to developing instincts offensively and in transition, and tons of media attention brought upon him by over-marketing courtesy of former management. The Canadiens were hampered by Romanov’s European Assignment Clause which would have allowed him to return to the KHL under the pretense of AHL assignment, but regardless – the end result was that in the grand scheme of player development, Romanov was subjected to nature over nurture, and I do not believe that to have been for the better.
Romanov’s offensive transition numbers are mediocre. He clocks in slightly above the mean in zone exit efficiency at 69.6%, however attempts controlled exits infrequently leaving his totals fairly low (5.82 per 60 minutes), data via Corey Szjnader.
His edgework is excellent, his puckhandling is smooth, and he can be unpredictable, but he tends to dumb down plays in this realm of the game as though he’s still overly concerned with endearing himself to a coaching staff who over-values simplicity. The hope, obviously, is that under Martin St. Louis’ new free-flowing playstyle, Romanov’s creativity frees up as well and he throws away fewer pucks via dump-outs, and acts more aggressively quarterbacking the breakout, as he certainly possesses the raw tools to do so more frequently. Here are some examples of what Romanov is capable of in transition – firstly, the good:
Here, Romanov utilizes his frame to shrug off a forechecker, turn into space, and make an outlet pass to a teammate in a safer area of the ice.
And here, he opens up a lane moving laterally across his own blueline, and finds a streaking Armia at the perfect moment. In contrast, however, he is equally capable of making plays like these:
Here is Romanov’s 2021-22 micro-stats player card, also via Corey Szjnader:
As we can see, Romanov does more good than bad when breaking the game down into these isolations. However, it’s interesting to note that the areas in which he is above the mean, particularly in transition hockey, are mostly rates: controlled entry percentage (0.88 z-score), zone exit with possession percentage (0.25), and zone entry denial percentage (0.14). It’s not so much a matter of ability with Romanov, as it is identifying when and where to do what. This may or not be learnable - that’s the ultimate challenge for Romanov - is whether or not his instincts can develop properly while playing unsheltered NHL minutes. Though most have focused on the impacts Martin St. Louis could and has had on forwards Cole Caufield, Brendan Gallagher, even Christian Dvorak; Romanov could prove to be the ultimate test of St. Louis’ philosophy: “I think it’s important as a player that if you’re going to play in this league a long time, you need to keep evolving as a player” – Martin St. Louis. Romanov has had little opportunity to do that - ever since his draft year, rather, Romanov has been in situations where he’s just fighting to make the lineup. By doing so, he has appeared invisible in offensive transition for years, whether on CSKA Moscow with Montreal, and rarely activates off the point in the offensive zone despite having the edgework and low center of gravity to beat defenders, and the speed to get back on defense if things go awry.
At the other end of transition hockey, Romanov is best described by three words: he’s pretty good. Most Alexander Romanov highlights look similar: they’re almost never goals, occasionally they’re assists, but most involve an attacking winger looking to beat Romanov wide, and him using his lateral movement and quick-closing gap to catch them with a brutal hit along the boards - or an open-ice check should they cut to the middle.
The issues with Romanov’s transition defense arise when the hits fail. Though a technically sound hitter, he too can miss hits. And when that happens, we get disasters like this:
Romanov’s rush defense is very aggressive by nature – he looks to make his move early at the blueline, denying the attacking team the zone, before turning the puck the other way or deferring to his partner. This approach to defense is very much in line with the former front office in Montreal, however their successors appear geared more towards effectivity than style. That doesn’t mean Romanov can’t play a hard-hitting and aggressive defensive style, but he may need to adapt his tendencies and learn to pick his spots more. I would suggest Romanov attend the Victor Mete school of rush defense against speedier, shiftier opponents – concede the zone if need be, keep the opponent to the wall, and time your defensive attacks. Here’s one such instance stolen from a JFresh EliteProspects article:
Regardless, rush defense is not an area of overwhelming concern for Romanov. He could improve, sure – but it’s not imperative to him being an effective hockey player, he’s already a respectable rush defender. In fact, his defensive results as a whole have been respectable at a macro level – His Evolving-Hockey EVD rating of 5.0 is good for 25th among all NHL defensemen – it’s only his shorthanded metrics which are lacking. Among Canadiens defensemen this season with more than 300 minutes played, here’s how he stacks up at 5-on-5, as per Natural Stat Trick data ranked by raw xGA/60:
What is an overwhelming concern, however, is his in-zone defense. In fact if I were to isolate one area of concern in which an overhaul would massively alter his overall impact on the game, it would be this one. Currently, Romanov is far too prone to ‘controller disconnected’ moments like this:
First, he fails to make a play on Stamkos’ centering pass to Point, before failing to strip the puck off Point as he dekes to the net for a scoring chance, and then as Savard rotates to attempt to apply pressure on Killorn below the goalline, Romanov doesn’t even attempt to put a stick or body on Corey Perry in front – though he can share the blame with his partner on that one.
Here he gets exposed on the penalty kill, getting caught playing monkey-in-the-middle between two deadly offensive players:
These are just two instances in which Romanov’s defensive blunders are obvious, but I promise you – any frequent watcher of the Montreal Canadiens has bore witness to more than just these two instances.
Another area in which Romanov has struggled in the NHL is at the offensive blueline. Through roughly the first 100 games of Romanov’s NHL career, he handled the puck like a hot potato at the point. He rarely mistimed pinches – largely because he rarely pinched. Rather, his offensive inability stems from a very different source than most young, skilled defenseman – rather than overplaying the puck, he underplays it, rifling point-blank blasts into shin pads two feet away from him, often creating an odd-man rush the other way. After all, one doesn’t earn the nickname ‘Shin Pad Assassin’ for nothing:
Romanov’s in-zone offense has been a see-saw of good and bad moments so far, but more recently, we have seen a more consistent and intelligent hockey player manning the point. During the Martin St. Louis era, Romanov has appeared more patient, and seems to recognize his skillset and puts it to use more frequently in the offensive zone.
(Via Natural Stat Trick)
Here’s one example in which Romanov’s new understanding of offense appears evident. Rather than forcing a shot through traffic, he cycles the puck low in the zone to a teammate, who later finds Romanov with space at the point. At that point, Romanov recognizes the space he has and fires a puck on goal which becomes a primary assist.
Here, he minimizes the distance between him and the net before even getting the puck, before slightly changing the angle on his shot to ensure it makes its way through. Though it’s a less recent example, it is indicative of Romanov’s ability to make these types of offensive plays – whether or not his brain can compute them consistently is a different story.
So what is Alexander Romanov currently?
Alexander Romanov is a two-way, defense-first defenseman who excels physically, both by decimating attackers with body checks at the blueline, and by protecting the puck. His physical tools keep him above water, and flashes of brilliance make him look like a great defenseman at times. Unfortunately, he’s equally prone to flashes of immense stupidity, and the net result is that he’s currently a roughly average, #4/5 defenseman, who should not have had to have been the most utilized defender in an NHL D corps this season.
Romanov’s long-term value is uncertain, but the existence of value is a certainty. Unlike fellow Canadiens’ defense prospects like Norlinder, Guhle, Harris, etc., Romanov is a proven commodity – and as they say, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. And in the case of Romanov, he still has nearly as much time as the rest of the organization’s prospects – a 22-year-old defenseman is not a finished product, and should Romanov find a way to shore up the glaring deficiencies in his game, he could develop into an impactful player. But even if he doesn’t, his worst case scenario is still capable of being a useful roster player in the bottom half of a contending team’s defense corps.
I’d like to see Romanov make controlled passes in the Dzone after a retrieval, he usually fires it around the boards without looking which seems like a bad habit from lower level hockey. Interested in his development moving forward.
Great Article Sean!