How Sustainable is Rem Pitlick's Success?
Can Jeff Gorton's first acquisition provide any long-term value to the team?
In recent years, the Canadiens have arguably found more free value than any other team in the league - making something out of nothing was perhaps Marc Bergevin’s greatest strength as general manager. Joel Armia was acquired from Winnipeg along with two draft picks in exchange for the burden of Steve Mason’s buyout cap hit, Brett Kulak was picked up from Calgary for noted stars Matt Taormina and Rinat Valiev, Paul Byron was picked up on waivers, and a fourth round pick magically turned into a second round pick via a couple months of Marco Scandella reputation rehabilitation. So where most fans see the waiver wire as a resource to acquire warm bodies for the press box when the team is decimated by injuries, fans of the Canadiens may be pre-dispositioned to see it as a source of potential. Could Rem Pitlick be the next sneaky bargain bin pickup by the Habs and the first of the Jeff Gorton era? Or is his success in this small sample just a flash in the pan?
Through 28 games this season between the Montreal Canadiens and Minnesota Wild, Rem Pitlick has scored eight goals and added eight assists - good for 16 points and 0.57 points-per-game. Relative to his teammates, that’s excellent - good for fourth, behind only Tyler Toffoli (0.76), Jonathan Drouin (0.63), and Nick Suzuki (0.61). However, Pitlick has also scored on 40% of his shots this season, and his team has scored on 13.4% of their shots with Pitlick on the ice.
The first, his shooting percentage, is an obvious cause for concern - players do not shoot 40%, and that will inevitably decline. His on-ice shooting percentage is a little more reasonable. The league average shooting percentage this season to date is exactly 9% - so that raises two questions: will Rem Pitlick’s on-ice shooting percentage regress to 9%? And secondly, should it regress, will his success disappear? Is there a player left when his luck dries up?
According to Evolving-Hockey, Rem Pitlick has produced 2.53 individual expected goals while scoring eight - that’s 5.47 goals above expected. A ratio of more than 1:3 goals per expected goal. Obviously, such a rate is near impossible for even the most talented of goal-scorers, but it is possible that Pitlick is simply an above average goal-scorer. To verify, I’ve taken a look at each of Rem’s eight goals in his short NHL career.
Firstly, the sixth goal of his rookie campaign, was a fluke.
However, among the seven others, there’s a lot to unpack.
My first impression when going over Pitlick’s goals was that he’s very opportunistic - and opportunism in a small sample is something to be concerned about when projecting talent in the long run. It’s the never-ending hockey debate of: is the player smart, or lucky?
The first clip, Pitlick’s first career goal, is an example of excellent awareness off the rush. Rather than coast up the ice or join Hartman on the forecheck, he realizes that Hartman is going to win the footrace and beelines for the front of the net, where he uses his gargantuan booty to box out the backchecking Kraken player. On the third goal, Pitlick recognizes the Seattle turnover at the blueline and curls up ice quickly, allowing him to out-race the defender.
Clips 2 and 4, however, are moreso a case of right time, right place - one second, the puck is in the possession of the opposition and Pitlick is stuck behind the play, only for the other team to bobble the puck or his teammates to force a turnover, and he’s left alone with the goaltender. These opportunities won’t come often for Pitlick, and creating them has little to do with anything he does - but it is encouraging that Pitlick knows what to do in these situations - on one he makes a simple, highly efficient backhand-forehand fake, and on the other he outwaits the goalie until the goal is all but assured. Many players rush themselves in these situations out of concern for the back-pressure, but Pitlick appears to be well aware of exactly how much time he has and is willing to make use of it. It’s near impossible for him to maintain the finishing outputs he’s had so far, but Pitlick does
Of course, there’s more to offense than goal-scoring - and by all metrics, Rem Pitlick is a passable chance creator. He has a slightly above average RAPM xGF/60 according to Evolving-Hockey, and a +0.08 xGF/60 according to HockeyViz’s isolated impact.
However, perhaps more noteworthy here is Pitlick’s defensive impact - a -12% impact in chance prevention is massive - though it’s curious that no other models reflect upon Pitlick’s defensive play in a positive light. Patrick Bacon’s TopDownHockey lists him as having a -0.15 EVD WAR, ranking in the 12th percentile, while Evolving-Hockey lists him as having a -1.6 EVD WAR, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Ultimately to find out what the Canadiens have in Pitlick, we need to expand our sample, as much of our results so far are skewed by his absurdly high finishing rates and there is inconsistency from one source to the next regarding his defensive impact. For Pitlick to be on the outside of the lineup looking in while players like Laurent Dauphin, Christian Dvorak, and Joel Armia populate our four forward lines is nonsensical.
However, I do believe that once the dust settles and we have a clearer picture of who Rem Pitlick is and what he’s capable of, there is a strong possibility that the result is a useful player. Pitlick’s patience and hands in tight could make him a positive finisher in the long run, he’s proven to be a competent offensive player, and his defensive play could be worse - even if we don’t entirely know what he is yet at either end of the ice. Most importantly, he’s still a very young player who’s had success while acclimating to the NHL in a harsh environment - while most forwards have peaked by age 24, development is not linear and Pitlick does not appear to be a player who’s taken a standard developmental path.