Phil Danault: The Canadiens' Unsung Hero of the First Round
Phil 'The Pizza Man' Danault provides further proof that there is more than one way to play effective hockey and contribute to a team's win.
Phil Danault: The Habs’ Unsung Hero of the First Round
A quick glance at the box scores would indicate a pretty disappointing first round performance for Phillip Danault - the only Quebecois left in the Montreal lineup - in the victory over the Maple Leafs. In seven games, the Canadiens’ most frequently deployed forward totaled a sexy one (1) point - a secondary assist on a Tyler Toffoli empty netter - and went -3. His line, the ‘TDG’ line, arguably the best even strength line over the past three seasons was split up. Danault remained heavily relied upon (his 19:56 TOI was most among all Habs’ forwards in the series) while his linemates Gallagher and Tatar saw their ice time reduced to 14:45/game and 13:37/game over the course of the series respectively - Tatar even wound up a healthy scratch the final two games, though I struggle to understand the logic behind that decision.
But play like this is what Danault does best, and it’s one of the most underappreciated skill-sets in the league. At the end of the day, a goal scored is equal to a goal saved, and Danault saved a lot of goals this series while stapled to the hip of Auston Matthews.
In total, Auston Matthews spent 128:34 on the ice at even strength over the course of the seven game series, relative to Danault’s 111:31. 72 minutes and 41 seconds of this time was spent with both players on the ice according to Natural Stat Trick - that’s 56.52% of Matthews’ TOI and 65.17% of Danault’s. Matthews did win the matchup against Danault, and that’s okay. The purpose of Danault’s deployment was never to score goals - it was to prevent them. Operating with a much worse defensive corps and wingers around him, Danault limited Matthews and the Leafs’ top heavy, high-octane offense to just one on-ice goal for, while potting zero, according to Natural Stat Trick’s line tool. Low-event hockey played to perfection.
Matthews’ xGF% against Danault over the course of the series was pretty dominant, interestingly enough - 62.78% according to Natural Stat Trick. But outplaying the opposition was not the purpose of the matchup - by playing low-event hockey with Matthews on the ice, Matthews outplaying his opposition became less relevant. Think about it this way: An 8-4 game, and a 2-1 game are the same ratio (2:1), but one is considered a rout, while the other is a close game that could’ve gone any which way with just a hint of luck.
It would appear based on the data that this deployment strategy was established roughly around game 3, a game in which Matthews thoroughly dominated his counterpart Danault. From thereon, the matchup remained pretty consistent, and while Danault didn’t out-chance Matthews by any means, he kept his chances to a minimum when it mattered most late in the series. The correlation between the Danault-Matthews matchup being low-event and the Habs winning games is just too obvious to ignore.
The purpose of this strategy was for the team to take advantage of any perceived matchups in the lower half of the lineup - Danault making Matthews nearly a net zero enabled guys like Kotkaniemi, Nick Suzuki, Corey Perry, and Joel Armia to rise to the occasion and play the role of the hero. But behind every hero is a team working behind the scenes just to make the moment possible - think Shuri in Black Panther, J.A.R.V.I.S. in Iron Man, or Guido, and his legendary pit-stop at the Piston Cup tie-breaker race in Cars - Phil Danault is the man behind the man, playing his role to perfection for the overall sake of the team.
Should the Canadiens hope to repeat their upset over Toronto in their second round matchup versus Winnipeg, they’ll need another strong showing from those who showed strong in round one - Carey Price, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Nick Suzuki, and the man of the hour Phillip Danault. Notably there are two ways in which the shutdown center could be deployed: against Nikolaj Ehlers, the Jets’ most dangerous solo offensive threat, or against the Connor-Scheifele-Wheeler line, the Jets’ most dangerous offensive trio. Which matchup the Canadiens choose to target is worthy of debate, but I don’t believe it’s worthy of worry - because luckily for Montreal, Danault isn’t their only quality two-way center. According to Evolving-Hockey, second line center Nick Suzuki had a EVD/60 of 0.220 (T-30 among forwards with 300+ minutes played) while third-line center Jesperi Kotkaniemi sat at 0.199 (T-38). Danault led the way with 0.238 (T-24). Jake Evans 0.100 was good for 113th, and I think most would agree he looked better and better as the season went on.
The series against the Jets also presents the opportunity for Danault to produce offense for the first time this postseason - the Jets play a high-event game, relying on all eighteen skaters for offense and almost exclusively their goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to repress goals. This means that while defending, Danault (or any other forward) can take advantage of the Jets’ poor defense on the counter-attack. Unlike against Toronto, where Danault’s sole task was to entirely ignore the offensive side of the game while playing the best defense possible, he should be able to play both ways - meaning a TDG (Tatar-Danault-Gallagher) reunion could be worth attempting.
Against Toronto, Danault was immensely valuable. Against Winnipeg, he’s going to have to be the exact same. Luckily for the Canadiens and their fans, Danault has been highly effective against the Jets this year. Here’s how he matched up against some of their top forwards at 5v5 over the 2020-21 season:
In roughly 125 minutes, Danault has not been on the ice for a single goal against - though that’s just as much thanks to Carey Price and Jake Allen’s goaltending as it is thanks to Danault’s defense. Kyle Connor in particular has feasted against the Canadiens this season, but beyond that only Ehlers, the best winger in the Canadian division, has bested Danault at 5v5 this year in terms of expected numbers. In a sample greater than ~30 minutes, I would expect his numbers to climb, as they have against other Canadian division superstars this season.
In short, it’s time we begin to appreciate what we have in Phil Danault before he’s potentially lost to free agency. Without him, the Canadiens don’t advance past game five, much less the entire series. Hell, there’s a good chance we don’t even make the playoffs. In forwards, defense is often the most undervalued asset - and it’s there where Danault excels, and has excelled his entire career. His two-way game has made him an impactful regular season asset and a versatile playoff asset, and both of those characteristics should continue to show as the Habs advance further in the postseason - the Jets’ high-powered offense being his next test.
Phil Danault: The Canadiens' Unsung Hero of the First Round
Great article Sean!
Great article Sean!