What Does Brendan Gallagher Bring to the Montreal Canadiens in 2021?
Is the winger's reign as one of the league's best 5v5 players over?
For years, Brendan Gallagher alongside Carey Price, has epitomized the Montreal Canadiens’ team identity. It adds up - the team with four out of the five largest upsets in recent playoff history (slightly outdated graphic below), led by the ‘little engine that could’ - perhaps the least talented first line forward in recent history to actually live up to his role. Gallagher represents all the traits teams want to see in their players and prospects - work ethic, workability, and a will to win.
(Vegas 2021 not pictured, 24% series win probability; Toronto 2021 also won by Montreal)
The fundamental traits of Brendan Gallagher, along with a great understanding of what he needed to do and how he needed to play, helped to form the best 5-on-5 line in hockey for the better part of three years alongside the defensive prowess of Phillip Danault and the transitional ability and offensive creativity of Tomas Tatar. Together, the trio held a 65.97 GF% and a 63.11 xGF% when playing together over the 2018-19, 2019-20, and 2020-21 seasons (via Moneypuck). The line managed these impressive metrics despite facing some of the toughest competition the league had to offer:
However, the 2021-22 season has not been as kind to Gallagher as the past three years. His linemates have gone on to bigger and better things in New Jersey and Los Angeles respectively (anywhere outside the state of Arizona is a ‘bigger and better thing’ than the 2021-22 Habs), and resultantly he’s been passed on the depth chart by other lines or duos, who have either proven they can produce together or should be able to in theory (Drouin - Dvorak - Anderson and Suzuki - Caufield). A man with a legitimate claim as the Habs’ best forward was relegated out of the team’s top six, and expected to produce alongside a revolving door of linemates - many of whom have a major deficiency or more: Hoffman’s play-driving, Anderson’s defense, and Dvorak’s - well - everything. Other forwards Gallagher has seen significant time with this year include Artturi Lehkonen, Tyler Toffoli, Jake Evans, and Nick Suzuki.
It’s a new situation for Gallagher, and to say he’d excelled this season would be a lie - he’s likely been nursing a lingering groin injury, and his lackluster linemates have not been much help. Still, the gritty winger finds ways to contribute.
During his career, Gallagher has produced 1.06 goals/60 and 2.08 points/60 at 5-on-5, leading all Canadiens players with 200+ games played for the team since he came into the league in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season. This year, his production has dipped heavily - he’s yet to score an even-strength goal and his 0.99 points/60 rank twelfth on the team.
That said, I think it’s only a matter of time. Gallagher, who normally finishes chances with reasonable efficacy (136 career goals on 147.36 expected goals prior to this season) has produced 3.6 5v5 ixG this year, a pace which would normally see him having scored roughly three goals at 5-on-5.
On the flip-side, Gallagher’s three power-play goals this year matches or exceeds his total from each of the past two seasons (3 in 2020-21 and 1 in 2019-20). The Canadiens’ powerplay has been notoriously weak for years, but with threats like Mike Hoffman and Cole Caufield and a competent quarterback in Chris Wideman, should it bear fruit in the long run, Gallagher’s 5-on-4 numbers could see a permanent up-tick as he’ll likely remain a powerplay option with the lack of offensive talent on the team.
My main area of concern regarding Gallagher’s early season results has been his defense.
As is shown in this graphic, the bulk of the regression seen in Gallagher’s 2021-22 season has been via finishing and chance suppression. The finishing I’ve addressed already - small samples tend to be extremely volatile with finishing, and it should normalize with time. Poor defense on the other hand is worrisome. Has his separation from Danault had more of an imapact on his two-way game than initially thought, or can we attribute this to something else? My educated guess: a mix of the two. Naturally, playing with one of the strongest two-way centers in the league will boost a player’s defensive numbers, but playing with these guys will have the inverse effect:
I expect that with more time alongside competent defenders and a larger sample size, Brendan Gallagher’s defensive metrics look notably better - though he likely never returns to his pre-2021-22 form.
Ultimately, while I do have reservations about Gallagher’s longevity and the future contract implications that will inevitably come with his regression, that time is not here yet. Though the Habs don’t do much (play)-driving these days, he remains perfectly suitable as the team’s engine, both analytically and in spirit.